'Politics from a Privileged Position', Sky News

Friday, May 09, 2008

Send to a friend
Interview: Irwin Stelzer, by James Silver

Few economists and commentators have the kind of access to the power-brokers of US and UK politics enjoyed by Irwin M Stelzer. When the Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and friend and adviser to News Corporation chief Rupert Murdoch discusses politics, he does so from a position of privilege.

Of course, part of the aura surrounding this softly-spoken and wryly amusing American, who spends much of his time in London, comes from the assumption that he speaks for Mr Murdoch himself. He does not.

"You have to understand that Mr Murdoch is the hub of a massive information system - of which I am a spoke," he told this reporter, during an interview for The Guardian last year.

In fact, Stelzer - a small 'c' conservative and free-marketeer - is a consultant, whose opinions are sought by a range of "clients", including Mr Murdoch and, less formally, Gordon Brown.

When Sky News Online reaches him on his cell-phone in Colorado, the conversation kicks off with the US presidential race, currently swamping American TV screens.

The Democrats had a "good" convention in Denver, he says.

"There were a few things they had to do. They had to appease the Hillary Clinton supporters, which they pulled off.

"And Barack Obama - who I thought might have a disaster on his hands, speaking in front of 80,000 people in a sports stadium - managed to avoid all that business of him being a celebrity and a rock star, and gave a garden-variety, liberal, well-presented speech.

"But there was nothing in his speech that wasn't in Jimmy Carter's or Al Gore's or John Kerry's. It was all the same things. He's just more engaging."

How strong a candidate does he think Obama is?

"He's a very talented politician, who's running on a very, very thin resume."

The real story, continues Stelzer, is that the race is still so tight, given the gloom-laden headlines about the state of the economy, the festering unpopularity of the incumbent administration and Obama's overflowing campaign coffers.

"I'm astonished at how close it is at this point," he says.

Why does he think this is the case?

"Obama has not sold the notion that he's up to the job. And he can't, based on his resume, he has nothing there.

"He's never sponsored a piece of legislation. He says he's bipartisan, but he's never ever voted against the liberal wing of the Democratic party. He doesn't withstand close scrutiny and people are a little uncomfortable with soaring rhetoric alone."

Moreover, argues Stelzer, he has had an easy ride from the US media, who have rounded on John McCain's controversial pick of Sarah Palin as vice-president.

"The media is having a love affair with Obama," he contends.

"In Denver there were reporters cheering during his speech. They're extraordinarily partisan, no question about that.

"All the data shows that - partly because reporters are younger and poorer - you get much more receptivity to Obama than you do to for McCain."

Of the issues in the campaign, Stelzer thinks that if Iraq "continues to go well", it is "a plus" for McCain, while he argues upheaval in Iran and Georgia also helps the Senator from Arizona, because "he knows what he's talking about."

However, the economy, he says, is a more complex issue than how it is portrayed by the press.

"I don't think anything that happens in the economy can do much for McCain. Even if it started to recover now, the feel-good factor lags well behind the recovery.

"The Democrats are claiming the whole country is in disarray. While the economy is not booming, there are major problems in the financial sector and there are more foreclosures by historic standards (not counting the Great Depression) - if you look at the data, it's a different story.

"95% of Americans are paying their mortgages on time and 85% have health insurance, while half of the rest are very young people, who feel they don't need it and are probably right," he points out.

"The latest report shows that in the majority of the metropolitan areas, house prices are steadying.

"The Democrats are going with the notion that there's a lot of pain out there and they have the answers. McCain has to bow to that somewhat, but it's just not clear that Americans are running around disgruntled."

When asked for his opinion about the political scene on this side of the Atlantic, Stelzer chuckles wryly.

A confidante of Gordon Brown, whom he "likes a lot", he admits he just can't see the PM winning a general election.

"I just don't see how that happens. I used to talk to him about this. He positioned himself as a one-trick pony - 'I'm responsible for the economy, look how wonderful I am, I've ended boom and bust!'

"Well, if he's responsible for the economy, he's responsible for (the current situation). Gordon can say it's an international crisis, that it started in America... but it isn't going to wash.

"I was with some Blair people - I mean really Blair people - the other day and they said they always thought he was not up to the job," he reveals. "And they feel (recent events) confirm it.

"Look, Gordon's got two years. He's gambling on pumping up the economy now, so that a year from now the recovery will take hold and by the next election, he'll say 'See, I fixed it!'.

"If that gamble fails, he's done," he says. "But then he's probably done anyway."

Posted by James Silver - On Friday, May 09, 2008

Send to a friend

SITE MAP